Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end lose but each side has got important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
